Simulation of disequilibrium and chaos in aggregates of disposable income, wealth, and consumption in EU macroeconomics using nonlinear dynamic analysis
Economic disequilibrium theory (DT) more realistically represents modern macroeconomic systems than general equilibrium theory. DT coupled with applied mathematical economics and nonlinear dynamical analysis generates multi-dimensional phase spaces. Interdependencies of endogenous variables in state space create a flow of different and “parallel economic realities,” which depend on the initial conditions. By modeling variable changes using the nonlinear least squares (NLLS) method, we define the first-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation (NODE) system. The NODE system is impossible to solve analytically. The numerical solution and visualization requires the MATLAB software package, combined with its specialized applications pplane (two-dimensional (2D)) and MATCONT (three-dimensional (3D)). By analyzing the evolution of flow operators, we can predict the future qualitative behavior of the entire system, determine the model-optimal values, and perform inverse modeling for variables. The obtained data advocate better and more stable macroeconomic paths that economic policymakers can pursue. The proposed methodology’s boundaries have strong links to chaos theory. Chaotic behavior can arise after a certain number of periods. We found very high computation accuracy, transformation of discrete variables to continuous functions, and the implementation of high-order polynomial data fitting offset its effects in part and to some reasonable degree.
Economic disequilibrium theory (DT) more realistically represents modern macroeconomic systems than general equilibrium theory. DT coupled with applied mathematical economics and nonlinear dynamical analysis generates multi-dimensional phase spaces. Interdependencies of endogenous variables in state space create a flow of different and “parallel economic realities,” which depend on the initial conditions. By modeling variable changes using the nonlinear least squares (NLLS) method, we define the...
An objective and data-based market segmentation is a precondition for efficient targeting in direct marketing campaigns. The role of customer segments classification in direct marketing is to predict the segment of most valuable customers who is likely to respond to a campaign based on previous purchasing behavior. A good-performing predictive model can significantly increase revenue, but also, reduce unnecessary marketing campaign costs. As this segment of customers is generally the smallest, most...
This paper seeks to compare certain customer segments from two sport footwear, apparel, and equipment retailers and to examine an objective market segmentation method, based on the recency, frequency, monetary (RFM) and the decision tree (DT) models. The case study is based on two data sets, aiming to compare the different customer segments, both from sport retail industry, and represents an application of data mining techniques in a business environment. The customer segmentation enables the customer...
AbstractThis article aims at investigating the impact of economic and demographic factors on premium reserve and thus the possibility for life insurers to invest in the financial market of Western Balkan countries. Using the data panel including economic and demographic trends in the countries of this region in the period from year 2006 to 2016, it is determined that price stability and higher deposit rates may cause faster development of insurance market. Contrary to previous findings, which indicate...
Insufficiently developed financial system, poor standard of living and inappropriate education of citizens on the saving products, lead to low level of investment in the financial market of developing countries. In this paper special attention is paid to examining the socio-demographic profile of Montenegrin citizens that invest their funds in some of the offered form of savings, as well as examining main factors that restrict their investment. For this purpose, data collected through the survey...
