Abstract
The Balkan Peninsula is a climate change hotspot, yet its temperature variability in relation to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remains insufficiently investigated. Using 0.1° × 0.1° ERA5-Land data from 7,262 grid cells, this study examines seasonal and annual air-temperature variability during 1950–2024 and its statistical relationship with AMOC variability during 1993–2023. ERA5-Land temperatures show close agreement with observations from 10 meteorological stations in Montenegro (r = 0.92–0.98). The Balkans exhibit significant warming, while the AMOC shows significant weakening, with an annual trend of − 1.61 Sv/decade. The strongest negative temperature–AMOC relationships occur in autumn and annually, reaching − 0.79 in Montenegro and ranging from − 0.49 to − 0.80 across the Balkans (p < 0.01). Significant negative relationships are also widespread in summer, more localized in spring, and largely absent in winter. AMOC variability is significantly associated with atmospheric CO₂ and AGGI (r = − 0.76 and − 0.77), as well as PDO, AMO, EA, and EAWR. Overall, the findings provide statistical evidence of a strong, seasonally heterogeneous relationship between AMOC variability and Balkan temperatures, likely mediated by large-scale atmospheric circulation and associated with anthropogenic greenhouse forcing.
