'Institut Za Migracije I Narodnosti (Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies)'
The Migration Population Balance of Rural Settlements in the SR of Croatia
1988
Autor analizira neto migracijski saldo stanovništva seoskih naselja SR Hrvatske u razdoblju 1961–1981. korištenjem vitalno-statističke metode. U promatranom razdoblju migracijski je saldo negativan i iznosi oko 500.000 osoba. Aproksimacijom doseljeničkog toka na oko 40.000 dobiven je obujam ukupne emigracije za promatrano razdoblje, i to oko 540.000 osoba, ili 25,6% od ukupnoga seoskoga stanovništva godine 1961. Pokazalo se da je egzodus prostorno jedinstven, ali i da postoje osjetne razlike u njegovu intenzitetu među prostornim jedinicama. Od ukupno 104 općine u SR Hrvatskoj samo četiri imaju pozitivan migracijski saldo u svojim ruralnim di¬jelovima, dok ostale bilježe negativne vrijednosti u rasponu od 2,8% do 62,4% ruralnog stanovništva 1961. Na ovaj proces presudno su utjecali opći faktori (iz domene razvojnog koncepta), ali je manje-više modificiran mnogim specifičnim faktorima. Utvrđeno je da postoji stanovit utjecaj stupnja privredne razvijenosti na egzodus, naime, opći faktori jače su djelovali u privredno slabije razvijenim područjima. Dugotrajno i snažno populacijsko pražnjenje dovelo je do vrlo nepovoljnoga općeg demografskog kretanja u ruralnim područjima. Depopulacijskim trendom zahvaćeno je 59 općina (odnosno njihova ruralna područja), a demografskim izumiranjem čak 40 općina (od ukupno 104). Ekspanzija ili regeneracija imigracijom gotovo je zanemariva, javlja se tek u četiri općine, ali u specifičnim okolnostima. Uočeni se egzodusni trend nastavlja, ali vjerojatno nešto slabijim intenzitetom nego u analiziranom razdoblju. Autor ocjenjuje da će za tekuće međupopisno desetljeće (1981–1991) negativni neto migracijski saldo stanovništva seoskih naselja SR Hrvatske iznositi oko 120.000 osoba.Using vital-statistical method the author analyses the net migration balance of the population of rural settlements in the SR of Croatia in the period 1961–1981. During this time the migration balance was negative, amounting to about 500,000 people. By approximating the in-migration flow to about 40,000, a total volume of out-migration of about 540,000, or 25.6%, of the rural population in 1961, was recei¬ved in the period examined. However, although rural exodus was common to the entire territory, there were significant differences among spatial units. Of a total of 104 communes in the SR of Croatia, only four had a positive migration balance in their rural parts, while in the others negative values ranged from 2.8% to 62.4% of the rural population in 1961. General factors (in the domain of the developmental concept) had a crucial influence on this process, yet it was more or less modified by numerous specific factors. It was confirmed that the level of economic development had a certain influence on the rural exodus, namely that general factors had a greater effect in economically less developed areas. Long-term and strong depopulation brought about a very unfavourable general demographic trend in rural areas. Fifty nine communes (i.e. their rural areas) had depopulation trends, and even 40 (out of a total of 104) were dying out in the demographic sense. Expansion, or regeneration by way of in-migration, was negligible. It occurred only in four communes, and at that in specific conditions. The observed exodus trend still continues, although probably with a somewhat lesser intensity than in the analysed period of time. The author estimates that rural settlements in the SR of Croatia shall have a net negative migration balance of about 120,000 people in the third inter-census decade (1981–1991)
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