Abstract The outbreak of COVID-19 has faced the globe with economic upheaval. The research problem of this paper focuses on examining, diagnosing, and assessing appropriate macroprudential policy response of the Montenegrin government to the evolution of the pandemic disease. We explore three economic scenarios – shocks – of how the pandemic disease might impact the economy of Montenegro in the dawn of entering the European Union. We forecast a sustainable GDP growth model from January 2006 until December 2017. Deterministic-static simulation solution model – the baseline – is employed, adding sensitivity scenarios – shocks – from January 2018 until Jun 2018, respectively, from -10% until -60%. Thus, we observe what happens to GDP, capital stock, human capital, and employment. The model measures econometrically the macroeconomic costs, using Bayesian VAR independent Normal-Wishart prior, of the pandemic disease in terms of demand and supply lost due to illness and closed activities in the GDP growth in various pandemic scenarios. The supply side is hit severely through employment and human capital, while the demand through the capital stock. The measures, focused on securing employment and keeping highly qualified staff in Montenegro’s companies are justified public finance spending.The results show a toll on the GDP, employment, capital stock, and especially human capital for 2018. Still, most likely, fast recovery of GDP growth is predicted in 2019 in case macroprudential policymakers make an appropriate fiscal and monetary combination puzzle.